andogo's blog

Researchers at MIT have released the results of a study that shows that the increasing levels of ozone that are the result of the ever growing use of fossil fuels will damage to vegetation world wide which will eventually lead to a serious impact on the world economy.

The researchers focused on three environmental changes and how they would effect crops, farm pastures and forests. They are increases in temperature, carbon dioxide and ozone, all of which have been connected to human activity.

The results were mixed, showing that the increased temperature as will as carbon dioxide might actually prove to be a benefit to vegetation, especially in the northern temperate regions. But, the effects from the increases in ozone might more than negate these benefits, mostly on the crops.

There is a possibility that the economic cost can be moderated by incorporating changes in land use as well as by trade in agricultural products and some regions will be able to adapt better than others.

According to their findings, if nothing is done now, by 2100 the value of the world’s crop production will be 10 to 12% less.

In order to compile the results, they used the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model, which is a combination of high tech economic, climate and agricultural computer models that allowed them to predict what the emissions of greenhouse gases ozone will be based on human activity and natural events. They came up with these predictions. If things remain the same and there are no restrictions put on emissions, the estimated carbon dioxide and increases in temperature would acutally benefit vegetation in most parts of the world.but the growth of global fuel combustion will make the average ozone level rise by 50% worldwide by the year 2100. Most of the effect will impact vegetation due to the fact that ozone concentrations will rise above the level where such effects have been seen in plants and ecosystems.

The model predictions indicate that ozone levels tend to be the highest where crops are grown. Also, crops are very sensitive to ozone, one factor in this is because they are fertilized; which makes their pores open up and they suck in more air, the more air they suck in, the more ozone they suck in.

If we do not put emissions controls into effect, the yields from forests and pastures will decline slightly or might even increase, but crop yields will fall by almost 40% worldwide.

These figures do not equate directly to economic losses. According to the model, the world will adapt by allocation more land to crops. But this will not happen without a cost. Using up the additional resources will result in a loss of 10 to 12% of the total value of the crops.

In the different regions, the northern temperate regions usually benefit from climate changes because the higher temperatures will extend the growing season. But still the corp losses from high ozone concentrations will be very significant. In the tropic regions, which are already warm, climate change will not be beneficial, but the crops here will not be so drastic because the emissions of ozone precursors are lower.

In summary, countries in the north temporal region such as the United States, China and all of Europe will need to import food, which would benefit the tropical countries.

The researchers say that these predictions may be too optimistic and they are now including a more realistic climate simulation into their model.

The lead researcher is John M. Reilly, associate director of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change and the rest of the team is from MIT and the Marine Biological Laboratory. The research was funded by the Department of Energy, the Environmental Protection Agency, the National Science Foundation, NASA, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. (Sourde : MIT http://web.mit.edu/).